Commodities Outlook by CapitalVia ,March 24 – 29

By Mr. Vivek Gupta – CapitalVia Global Research Limited

Precious metal:-

 Gold prices moved down for the day as US Fed announced further tapering of stimulus and also hinted at raising interest rates earlier. Reducing global tensions and reduced stimulus from Fed also pushed US stock markets higher. Gold jewellery exports from India edged higher by 1 percent in February to $718.36 million from a year earlier. U.S. President Barack Obama raised the stakes in an East-West confrontation over Crimea on Thursday by targeting some of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest long-time political and business allies with personal sanctions. Gold prices are expected to move down for the week as impact of FOMC announcement and reducing tensions in the market can push the prices further down.

Over all, MCX Gold April future is in consolidation and sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week 29384/28800 will act as a major support whereas 30000/30550 will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold April future. For the next week in MCX Gold, trader can use sell on  higher level strategy, if MCX Gold April future sustain below the levels of 29680 then it could test the levels 29550 / 29384.

Technically, MCX Silver May futures is consolidate and sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week 45800/47000 will act as major resistance levels where as 42400/40000 will act as major support in MCX Silver May futures. For the next week in MCX Silver futures, traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Silver May futures sustains below 44700 then it could test the levels of 43600/ 42400.

Energy:-

Crude oil prices moved down despite positive US data as highly oversupplied market and muted physical demand kept the lid on the prices. European leaders will agree to expend a list of those  subject to travel bans and asset freezes on Friday but stop short of harder-hitting measures against Russia. We expect Crude Oil prices to move down as easing tensions in Russia and over supplied market can push the prices down.

For the coming week 5800/5600 will act as major supports levels whereas 6150/6330 will act as major resistance in MCX Crude oil April futures. For the next week, trader can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Crude April future sustain below 6030 levels then it could test the levels 5930/5800.

Base Metal:-

Copper prices moved in range on Friday as worries over Chinese market and stronger dollar internationally pushed the copper prices down. The global copper market turned into a production surplus of 34,000 tonnes in December, as weak refined usage in major consuming regions offset strong Chinese demand. Poor Existing home sales data by US also pressured the prices further downside. We expect copper prices to move in a range to down for the upcoming week as negative sentiment over Chinese economy and surplus copper in the market can push the prices further down.

Trend of MCX Copper April future is in consolidation and also sustaining around lower levels. For the coming week, it could face major resistance of 408/420 whereas 385/373 could be a major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may follow sell on higher levels strategy, if MCX Copper future sustain below 399 levels then it could test the level of 393/385.