The PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry projects FY 2021-22 GDP growth at around 9% on the back of supportive Government policies, meagre impact of Coronavirus and noteworthy performance of the key economic and business indicators, said Mr Pradeep Multani, President, PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry, in a press statement issued here today.
According to the PHDCCI Economic & Business Momentum (EBM) Index, the 25 lead economic and business indicators have shown a significant recovery at 103.3 for Q4 FY 2021-22 as compared to 99.7 for Q4 FY 2020-21, at the base of 2018-19 = 100.
Economic recovery so far (Y-o-Y)
| PHDCCI EBM Index2018-19=100 | Q4 FY 2017-18 | Q4 FY 2018-19 | Q4 FY 2019-20 | Q4 FY 2020-21 | Q4 FY 2021-22 |
| 97.9 | 100.3 | 97.4 | 99.7 | 103.3 |
The official data of GDP growth for FY 2021-22 will be released on 31st May 2022 by National Statistical Office (NSO), MOSPI, Government of India.
Lead economic and business indicators such as SENSEX, merchandise exports, services exports and FDI Equity Inflows have shown a noteworthy improvement in Q4 FY 2021-22 as compared to the Q4 FY 2020-21, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Sequentially, the PHDCCI EBM Index has shown an uptrend for Q4 FY 2021-22 to the level of 103.3 as compared to 102.6 for Q3 FY 2021-22, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
Economic recovery so far (Sequential)
| PHDCCI EBM Index2018-19=100 | Q1 FY 2020-21 | Q2 FY 2020-21 | Q3 FY 2020-21 | Q4 FY 2020-21 | Q1 FY 2021-22 | Q2 FY 2021-22 | Q3 FY 2021-22 | Q4 FY 2021-22 |
| 85.2 | 96.0 | 98.2 | 99.7 | 97.9 | 101.5 | 102.6 | 103.3 |
The quarterly movement of PHDCCI EBM Index and quarterly GDP growth rates are highly correlated at 0.8 as depicted in Chart-2, said Mr Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI EBM (Economic and Business Momentum) Index has shown steady recovery from the lows of 78.3 for April 2020 to 100.3 for April 2021, 95.3 for May 2021 as compared with 85.7 for May 2020, 98 for June 2021 as compared to 91.6 in June 2020, 102.1 for July 2021 as compared to 95.5 in July 2020, 101.7 for August 2021 as compared to 95.9 in August 2020, 101.1 for September 2021 as compared to 96.5 in September 2020, 102.3 for October 2021 as compared to 96.8 in October 2020, 102.0 for November 2021 as compared to 98.4 for November 2020, 103.5 for December 2021 as compared to 99.3 for December 2020, 103.7 for January 2022 as compared to 99.3 for January 2021, 102.8 for February 2022 as compared to 99.3 for February 2021 and 103.3 for March 2022 as compared to 100.3 for March 2021 with a base of 2018-19=100.
Going ahead, the pace of economic activity is expected to remain strong on the back of various structural reforms undertaken by the Government during the last 2 years, said Mr. Pradeep Multani.
PHDCCI EBM Index is a composite index of 25 lead economic and business indicators with base year at 2018-19=100, which considers the demand and supply indicators to present a broad perspective of the economy. The 25 indicators include the IIP Consumer durable goods, IIP Consumer non-durable goods, IIP Capital Goods, IIP Intermediate Goods, Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Petroleum Refinery Products, Fertilisers, Steel, Cement, Electricity, Consumption of Petroleum products, Export Merchandise, Export Services, India Freight Traffic, Credit to Agriculture, Credit to Industry, Credit to service sector, Personal Loans, GST Collections, SENSEX, FDI Equity Inflows, External commercial borrowings and Unemployment.
Full PHDCCI EBM Index report attached
PHDCCI EBM Index
Base: 2018-19=100
| Sr No | Economic Indicators | Q4 FY 2020-21 | Q4 FY 2021-22 | Q4 FY 2021-22 – Q4 FY 2020-21 |
| 1 | IIP Consumer durable goods | 105.1 | 99.7 | (-) 5.2 |
| 2 | IIP Consumer non-durable goods | 110.9 | 107.5 | (-) 3.2 |
| 3 | IIP Capital Goods | 92.5 | 93.0 | 0.1 |
| 4 | IIP Intermediate Goods | 116.3 | 118.3 | 2.2 |
| 5 | Coal | 117.3 | 123.0 | 5.6 |
| 6 | Crude Oil | 83.7 | 81.5 | (-) 2.2 |
| 7 | Natural Gas | 94.1 | 104.1 | 9.9 |
| 8 | Petroleum Refinery Products | 104.6 | 111.1 | 6.5 |
| 9 | Fertilizers | 102.2 | 105.5 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Steel | 115.8 | 120.6 | 4.7 |
| 11 | Cement | 137.8 | 150.2 | 12.4 |
| 12 | Electricity | 119.4 | 123.4 | 3.8 |
| 13 | Consumption of Petroleum products | 111.2 | 114.1 | 3.0 |
| 14 | Export Merchandise Growth | 117.0 | 144.4 | 27.4 |
| 15 | Export Services | 134.2 | 175.2 | 30.3 |
| 16 | India Freight Traffic | 106.5 | 110.7 | 4.2 |
| 17 | Credit to Agriculture | 110.8 | 110.2 | (-) 0.6 |
| 18 | Credit to Industry | 99.6 | 106.7 | 7.0 |
| 19 | Credit to service sector | 106.4 | 107.3 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Personal Loans | 109.6 | 112.1 | 2.5 |
| 21 | GST Collection | 119.0 | 138.7 | 19.7 |
| 22 | SENSEX (Daily average) | 180.7 | 210.0 | 29.3 |
| 23 | FDI Equity Inflows | 73.1 | 108.4 | 35.4 |
| 24 | External commercial borrowings | 282.5 | 276.7 | (-) 5.8 |
| 25 | Unemployment | 97.4 | 96.7 | (-) 0.7 |
| Composite Weighted Index | 99.7 | 103.2 | 3.6 |