Nifty bouncing back to 25,500 after an 18% correction from its September peak and doing it quietly says a lot about the market’s internal strength. It’s not euphoric, but it’s not weak either. That kind of move, without too much retail frenzy, usually reflects institutional confidence.
Whether we reach 30,000 by the end of the year really depends on how some key variables play out. Tariff-related uncertainty has kept the market in a sideways range for now. Once there is more clarity, we could see a directional move, either way. I wouldn’t call this a bubble yet. Valuations are elevated in pockets, but not across the board.
There is also a macro cushion. The RBI has already eased infrastructure financing norms, which are quietly unlocking capital at the banking level. If that’s followed up by deeper liquidity support into FY26, or if rate cuts surprise on the lower side, it could give the market a fresh leg up.
A good monsoon, steady inflation, and improving government spending trends are already tailwinds. Add a corporate earnings surprise to the mix, especially from manufacturing and capital goods, and the sentiment could turn decisively positive.
But for now, we are in a consolidation zone, watching how policy, liquidity, and earnings shape up before the next move.
