*Dr Ved Pratap Vaidik

It looks difficult for Pakisthan’s Imran government to survive. A few days ago Prime Minister Imran Khan had a long meeting with Pakistan’s Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa and ISI chief General Nadeem Anjum. Both of them were angry with Imran. If Imran could win over these two, then the Pak Prime Minister  has a chance to win the losing battle,  because military is the real axis political power in Pakistan. The political parties in Pakistan which were supporting Imran’s party, PTI, and keeping his minority government alive are also seen drifting away from the Prime Minister after there was a visible shift in the Army’s attitude. About two dozens of Imran’s own MPs have raised the flag of rebellion. Even if Imran could appease and keep his rebellious MPs with him, what would he do with the 7 MPs from Muttahida Qaumi Movement who has joined the rival camp?

Imran’s coalition government was surviving on a wafer thin majority of 5 members. His government has now been reduced to a minority. But he is still not resigning.  The Pak Prime Minister says he holds the ‘trump card’.  Replacing his party man Imran made Parvez Elahi of the Muslim League (QA) the Chief Minister of Punjab so that 7 MPs of that party stay together and support him.

I fail to understand which trump card is Imran going to play now? Will he save his government by making one of his rebels the prime minister? All the opposition parties are demanding that Imran Khan should resign as Prime Minister before the no-confidence motion on April 3, but Imran is bent on making history. I feel, it was better and a wise option for him to dissolve the Assembly.

In 1957, Ibrahim Chundarigar, who was Prime Minister for only two months, became the lone Prime Minister of Pakistan who had to leave his post due to a no-confidence motion in Parliament. Imran is on his way out and till date, there has not been a single Prime Minister in Pakistan who has remained in power for a full term of five years. This fact alone explains the pathetic plight of Pakistan’s democracy. In Pakistan, at times the Army ousts the Prime Minister and in certain instances the President is thrown out and even assassinated.

 Now, there is a fair possibility of Shahbaz Sharif becoming the new Prime Minister, in the event of the Imran Khan’s exit.  Shahbaz Sharif has been the Chief Minister of Punjab for three times and is now the leader of the biggest opposition party. Everyone knows how bitter the relationship between his elder brother Mian Nawaz Sharif and the Pak Army are.

It is not very clear how long and how best the army will tolerate Shahbaz? It is possible; Prime Minister Shahbaz may announce the general election very soon. That means, as always, Pakistan will enter into a new era of instability.

To my understanding, the current political volatility in Pakistan is a creation of ‘Uncle Sam’. The current American Administration has an axe to grind with Imran Khan. There are multiple reasons to believe that US is instigating the opposition parties against Imran. The Pak Prime Minister has overtly accused the US for conspiring to remove him from power. On Thursday evening during his extempore television address to the nation, Imran Khan first named America, and realizing his “slip of tongue,” corrected that the threat came from a foreign country. So let us wait till Sunday, the day destined for no-trust vote, to know the fate of our neighbouring nation and its incumbent Prime Minister Imran who had in his cricketing career clean bowled even the most talented batsmen with his surprising reverse swings.

*Dr. Vaidik is a widely travelled scholar-journalist. He has visited more than 80 countries on diplomatic and educationalmissions. Dr. Vaidik has won more than a dozen National and International awards for academic and journalistic excellence. He has been a member of several Advisory Committees of Government of India.