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  • The Real GDP Growth Will Be Higher Than the Pre-Pandemic Levels: Dr. Arvind Virmani

    Published on January 23, 2022

    The former Chief Economic Advisor shared his insights at the webinar on the expectations from the upcoming Union Budget 2022 
     

    New Delhi: The Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ASSOCHAM), the apex industry association of the country, held an interactive session on ‘Expectation and Wishlist for Truly Atmanirbhar Bharat’ ahead of the Union Budget 2022. During the webinar, eminent key speakers shared their insights on how the budget will help COVID-hit sectors recover.  

    Dr. Arvind Virmani, Chief Guest, and Former Chief Economic Advisor, Government of India, discussed how the government is implementing second-generation reforms for liberalisation and the fulfillment of a comprehensive approach to digitalization.  He added, “The GDP (gross domestic product) is projected to recover from pre-pandemic levels by upto 1.6% in Q4 and projected GDP growth FY22 will be 9.2% to 9.5% while the average GDP growth from FY21 to FY30 will be 7.5% +/-0.5%”. He further raised questions about what has worked in other countries and concentrated on two main points- rationalization in tax rates and simplification in the GST process. 

    The session moderator, Dr. Charan Singh, Chairman, ASSOCHAM National Council for Banking, outlined that “This is an important year for Budget making. The global and domestic economy would now begin to normalise, with the third wave getting over. The Budget should make effort to provide a roadmap on the role of the Banking Sector, including NBFCs in attaining a US$5 Trillion economy, role of MSMEs in sterilisation of the Economy, and enhancing the role of India in the global economy.    

    Dr. Charan Singh also stressed that Govt will have to continue supporting the banking system as stress levels would continue. Government should pursue privatisation of banks and may also consider placing a few banks under asset monetisation program. 

    Sharing his observation on the agri budget, Shri Ashok Vishandass, Professor, Indian Institute of Public Administration, said, “Agriculture has an immense potential to support $5 trillion economy.” He added, “There is a need for awareness on how the budget for agriculture sector will turbocharge the economy and why is it necessary to invest more in mobility to transfer the supply agriculture to demand agriculture areas.”  

    Among the panelist who participated in the session was Shri Sameer Narang, Head, Economics Research Group, ICICI Bank, shared, “Exports, which played a major role and is a key driver of growth, are expected to be 11.1% above FY20 level in FY22.”    

    Shri Shachindra Nath, Executive Chairman & MD, U GRO Capital expressed his viewpoints on the credit model and co-lending of MSMEs (Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises) and NBFCs (Non-Banking Financial Company) that requires a policy push. In addition, MSME formalisation and digitization has progressed to the point of consumer finance. “This year, there will be around 30,000 cr-50,000 cr of gross disbursement to MSME through co-lending,” he said.  

    Shri Rajkumar Muthukumar, CRO, Orange Retail Finance Pvt. Ltd., also opined on how the co-lending model is now serving as a good boom for smaller NBFCs to prosper in business.  

    Other esteemed panelists in the session were Shri Basudev Mukherjee, Assistant Secretary General, ASSOCHAM; Dr. Rattan Chand, Consultant, World Bank; Shri Amit Tewary, Co-Founder & CEO, 4Fin; Shri Indranil Pan, Chief Economist, Yes Bank Ltd.; Col. M. P. Singh, Director, EGROW Foundation and Shri Suman Bery, Former Director General, National Council of Applied Economic Research. The session was concluded by Shri S. C. Aggarwal, CMD, SMC Group.  

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