Top Finance Ministry advisor on Tuesday said inflation would fall to 7.5 per cent in November, data for which will be released next week, from 8.58 per cent in the previous month.

“My forecast for overall inflation for November is 7.5 per cent,” Chief Economic Advisor Kaushik Basu told reporters after the tabling of Mid-Year Analysis in Parliament.

Having peaked to 11 per cent in April 2010, inflation moderated to 8.58 per cent in October.

Basu also said food inflation will go below 8 per cent in November. Food inflation stood at over 10 per cent for the first two weeks of November and then fell to 8.60 per cent for the week ended November 20.

Earlier in the day, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said inflation will fall to about 6 per cent by March end.

“Inflation is coming down. Now it is at the single digit but I would like it to be further reduced. I am hoping that by March it would be around 6 per cent, but it should come down further,” he said.

Pointing out that inflation, measured by movement in wholesale prices, remained high in the current fiscal, the Analysis said, “(inflation) is now coming down.”

The deceleration in inflation, according to Analysis, can be attributed to a slew of policy measures taken by the government and the Reserve Bank “to douse inflationary expectations and pressures.”

The Analysis also revised upwards the projections for economic growth to 8.75 per cent (plus or minus 0.35 per cent), from 8.5 per cent (plus or minus 0.25 per cent) pegged in the Economic Survey, brought out in February this year.

Basu said the revision is based on economic performance during the second quarter. “Besides, the IIP figures have also been good.”

Indian economy grew 8.9 per cent in the second quarter this fiscal, raising hopes that it may record 9 per cent expansion in 2010-11.

To a query about larger range (0.35 per cent) in the Analysis, compared to Economic Survey (0.25 per cent), Basu said, “it is due to two reasons… because if the situation in developed countries improves, the 9 per cent growth is possible, but the situation in European Union is worrying and the crisis in Ireland may spill-over to Italy, Spain and also Belgium.”

So, it was decided to expand the range of the forecast, he said.

Basu said the high unemployment situation in countries like the US and Spain is also a cause for worry.

He termed the current growth in India as “robust” and said the upward revision has been made due to good performance in agriculture and manufacturing.